The story of women voting in India has added one more puzzle for social scientists to decipher. In the past decade, the research largely focused on the increasing voter registration among women and their higher turnout rate at polling booths. The combined effect of these two developments has been that in many parts of the country, the electoral weight of women voters is higher than men. In addition to these, women voters have also been making distinct preferences in vote choice. In the past few years, we have seen the positive effect of this behind the re-election of many Chief Ministers Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, J Jayalalitha, Naveen Patnaik, among others.
So what role did women voters play in BJP’s victory in four states? The data indicates that more women seem to have voted for the BJP than men in all four states the party won; both the Axis My-India and Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey data confirm this pattern. While the margin of difference is in the range of 2-4 percentage points, the importance of this turnaround should not be discounted.
The BJP used to have a gender disadvantage with women before 2014, but the party managed to close this gap during the 2019 Lok Sabha election. In many states too, the party gained some advantage with women voters – the trend was very visible in the 2020 Bihar and 2021 Assam assembly elections.
Consider the more disaggregated data from the post-poll studies mentioned above. The difference between women voters who voted for the BJP and those who voted for the Samajwadi Party was in double digits. This means that SP was actively put in a disadvantageous position with its failure to appeal to women voters. At the same time, across all major caste-ethnic blocs in UP, women were more likely to vote for the BJP, indicating that women voters are perhaps making different political choices from the male members of their families.
What is driving women to vote for the BJP in greater numbers? In our view, the current shift is a combination of three factors, and we need greater research to understand the complex dynamics at play.
WELFARE POLICIES
First, the distinct nature of BJP’s welfare policies, in comparison to earlier governments. Much has been said about the improved ration delivery under the current regime, especially during the peak pandemic months. However, the nuances of what these schemes might be doing are being missed. The focus of many schemes such as those regarding food security, LPG cylinders, house construction, LED lights and direct cash transfers among others is to bring welfare to the doorstep. By delivering welfare within the household, the BJP has come up with a model that relates very specifically to women, who are most likely to utilise the goods they provide.
SAFETY
The second reason is the rhetoric around safety and security. Whether crime statistics attest to this or not, the image of being hard on law and order, especially centred around women’s security, seems to have resonated with women. Pliant coverage by media channels certainly helped in building this perception. At the same time, it should also be remembered that the Yogi regime has stuck to this line from day one, beginning with measures such as ‘anti-Romeo’ squads, which catered specifically to the issue of women’s security. While such measures have, rightly, been criticised for impinging on individual freedoms, the reality of everyday life in the heartland should not be ignored. These are places where women’s movement outside the homes is heavily sanctioned and scrutinised, often by older women themselves. To them, constant and harsh police policies are a welcome move as it provides a semblance of security in a precarious world.
CONNECT
And finally, it is about the emotive connection with the leadership. After all, Akhilesh Yadav insisted on cleaning up SP’s soft-on-crime image. And Priyanka Gandhi herself led a highly visible campaign on the plank of women’s rights and agency. Results show that women remained unimpressed by both. The signal to political parties is clear – perception only sticks when the intended message is combined with a credible face. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has carefully and consciously cultivated this image over the years be it Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao, Swachh Bharat, Ujjawala Yojna or his message to parents from the ramparts of Red Fort among others.
IN CONCLUSION
What must non-BJP parties do to increase their presence among women voters? Very simply, learn from leaders such as Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar, and make concerted outreach efforts towards women voters. It would require not only substantial forethought and strategizing, but also need an overhaul of their party structures and patronage networks, which are heavily tilted towards men.
Women voters continue to face various obstacles in the political arena. They are less likely to be vocal in community meetings and are substantially less present on social media. This means that reaching them through caste-community networks is more challenging. Party workers, especially if they are women, are a more viable medium for connecting with such voters.
In conclusion, while we may quibble over the magnitude and reason of women voting for the BJP in this election, the positive swing for the BJP among women voters in these elections signals an important shift. If this pattern continues, the BJP’s ability to win elections will further increase.
Just to put what happened in Uttar Pradesh in this election through a gender lens – assuming women and men voting population to be the same in UP, a ten percent lead over the Samajwadi Party among women voters (both Lokniti-CSDS and Axis My-India indicate higher lead) produced a five percent lead for the BJP in total vote share. The rest, as they say, is complicated.
(Rahul Verma is a Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi. Ankita Barthwal is a PhD candidate in political science at the University of Oslo, Norway.)