With voters in Uttar Pradesh delivering a two-thirds mandate to the BJP, Yogi Adityanath is set to script history as the only chief minister to return to power in the state after completing a full five-year term.
Termed a semi-final for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the UP assembly elections were being viewed as a prestige battle for the BJP since Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the MP from Varanasi. UP is also the state that accounts for the maximum number of seats in the Lok Sabha.
For Samajwadi Party and its chief Akhilesh Yadav, the stakes were equally high. While the SP managed to double its number of seats compared to 2017, it was unable to defeat the incumbent BJP.
Here are 5 reasons that might have led to the SP’s loss:
1. BJP’s hardcore Hindutva overpowered SP’s caste alliances
The BJP’s campaign was focused on a number of elements, including temples in Ayodhya, Kashi and Mathura. Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, brought together a rainbow coalition by joining hands with leaders from the Muslim, SC and OBC communities.
However, the BJP was able to play the Hindutva card in its favour by accusing the SP of “Muslim appeasement”. Among the issues that took centre stage in this context were the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots.
2. PM Modi’s popularity prevailed over ‘New SP’
Results of assembly elections in the five states clearly show that PM Narendra Modi’s popularity is here to stay. The Prime Minister held more than 20 physical rallies and five virtual rallies across the length and breadth of poll-bound UP in the run-up to the election.
Ahead of the final phase, PM Modi camped in his parliamentary constituency, Varanasi, for three days. This resulted in a massive victory for the BJP not just in Varanasi but across the Purvanchal region.
Akhilesh Yadav, with his ‘New Samajwadi Party’ campaign and populist manifesto, could not connect with the voters in Uttar Pradesh.
3. BJP’s developmental and welfare agenda
The BJP tactfully laid down its campaign on two parallel planks – Hindutva and development.
While on the one hand, PM Modi inaugurated the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor, he also laid the foundation stones for five international airports in UP, including the one in Jewar. The BJP also placed emphasis on the Ganga, Bundelkhand and Purvanchal expressways, apart from the Saryu Canal project.
These infrastructure projects seem to have gone a long way in shielding the BJP from an anti-incumbency wave as was being projected by Opposition parties.
4. BSP loss is BJP’s gain
Dalits constitute 21 per cent of UP’s electorate. With Mayawati making limited appearances in the run-up to the election, Dalits – seen as loyal voters of the BSP – found themselves in a state of confusion.
The very same Dalits decided to go with the BJP owing to the central government’s welfare schemes involving free rations and homes.
Akhilesh Yadav’s brief association with Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad (Ravana) could have also played a role in denting SP’s prospects with Dalit voters.
5. M+Y equation
Samajwadi Party is identified in political circles as the party of Muslims and Yadavs (M+Y combination).
While Akhilesh Yadav did receive the support of these communities, he was unable to convince non-Yadav OBCs to vote for the SP instead of the BJP.