The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to retain power in Uttar Pradesh with a massive majority in the 403-member assembly, India Today-Axis My India exit polls predicted on Monday when the seven-phase state election concluded.
The exit polls predicted a noticeable gain for the Samajwadi Party-led alliance both in terms of the number of seats and voting percentage in the assembly election, but these gains appear to be coming at the cost of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
India Today-Axis My India predicted the BJP to win 288-326 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The Samajwadi Party is predicted to win 71-101 seats while the BSP is unlikely to touch double digits. The BSP may win 3-9 seats, according to the exit polls.
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The Samajwadi Party had won 47 seats in 2017 and it was leading in 44 assembly segments in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. This means that the Samajwadi Party is predicted to improve its tally significantly, but from both 2017 and 2019-projection.
However, the predicted gain for the Samajwadi Party comes at the loss of seats for the BSP, which had won 19 seats in 2017 but showed considerable gains in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, in which it led by 65 seats. The BSP and the SP had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election as an alliance.
The predicted vote percentages for the Samajwadi Party and the BSP present a clearer picture of reciprocal gain and loss. The BSP’s vote percentage in 2017 was over 22 per cent, which came down to about 19.5 per cent – as its contest covered a lower number of assembly constituencies.
This time around, the exit polls showed, the BSP’s vote share might shrink to 12 per cent. The SP sees a corresponding jump from 21.8 per cent in 2017 and 20.1 per cent in 2019 to 36 per cent.
The BJP is also predicted to secure 46 per cent vote, significantly high from 41.4 per cent (with alliance) in 2017 but over five per cent less than 51.2 per cent in 2019.
The Congress that maintained its vote percentage in 2017 (6.2 per cent) and 2019 (6.4 per cent) is in deeper trouble with the exit polls predicting only a three per cent vote percentage in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. The party is likely to win only 1-3 seats, down from seven in 2017, and projected lead at eight in 2019.
The BJP-led alliance had won 325 seats in the 2017 UP polls. At the lower end of the seat projection in India Today-Axis My India exit polls, the BJP is set to suffer a loss of over 35 seats, but closer to its projected lead in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. In 2019, the BJP led in 284 assembly segments.
If the results of the exit polls stay true on March 10, the day of counting of votes, the BJP would be the first party in two decades to retain power in Uttar Pradesh. The seven-phase assembly election was held in Uttar Pradesh between February 10 and March 7.