What Russia wants from the war, Putin’s 5T war strategy and what could end it?

Ukrainian troops are putting up a tremendous resistance and surprisingly, Russia has not been able to dominate the skies. There are growing fears that as Russia becomes more isolated as a result of Western sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin could take an even more aggressive stance and launch a world-changing war.

In these circumstances, Putin is constantly trying to bring Ukraine to its knees, but at the moment it does not seem to be happening. If you look at the actions from the attack that started on February 24 till date, then they appear to be part of Putin’s 5T strategy.

Actually, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the support of the Western countries. He wants to join NATO as well as the organisations of the European Union, but Putin does not want to let this happen at any cost.

Read | How international law can take its course on Russia’s Ukraine invasion: 5 points

Trying to end the dispute through dialogue

On February 28, delegations of both the countries met face to face in Belarus for talks but no mid-path could be reached as a solution to the dispute. Next round of talks will be held today. Putin put forward three conditions to end the war.

1. Ukraine should not become part of any European organisation, 2. Accept Russia’s power over Crimea 3. Ukraine order its army to lay down arms – which Ukraine has vehemently rejected. 

Capture of capital Kyiv

Vladimir Putin can proceed on the strategy of capturing Kyiv and at present the Russian army seems to be doing the same. After capturing Kyiv, Putin can form the government he wants there, after which Russia’s authority over Ukraine will also be established indirectly.

Break Ukraine into two halves

(Image Source: Reuters)

Crimea, which was part of Ukraine, was annexed by Russia in 2014. On February 24, Putin declared the two states of the eastern part of Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk where separatists dominated, independent. In this way, three states of Ukraine have already come under the jurisdiction of Russia indirectly. In such a situation, Putin’s strategy may be to weaken Ukraine by dividing it into two parts.

Russia may use lethal weapons

President Putin has already put Russian nuclear forces on high alert. On February 28, Putin ordered his nuclear forces to be on high alert after which a day later on March 1 it was reported that Russia’s military had also used vacuum bombs.

Policy to put pressure on Ukraine’s supporters

All the countries of the European Union including America, Britain, France stand with Ukraine. Angered by the attack on Ukraine, these countries have retaliated by imposing various types of sanctions on Russia, due to which the economic situation there is deteriorating day by day.

In such a situation, Putin can prepare some special strategy against these countries with the intention of counter attacking. But possibilities are very less. However, Russia on Monday announced the decision to ban flights by airlines from 36 countries including Britain, Germany, Spain, Italy and Canada. 

Read | Ukraine War Day 6: Russia bombs TV tower and Holocaust memorial in Kyiv

What does Vladimir Putin want?

The most important question that everyone is asking that what does Russian President Vladimir Putin want from waging a war against Ukraine. This is the most important question and it is one that cannot have a certain answer to it. Russia has been saying that it does not want control over Ukraine

President Putin has already stated his key requirements for no further NATO expansion eastwards, but there could be more to this invasion. Putin is in power since 20 years. At 69, he has likely entered the twilight of his political life, and may want to cement his legacy as Russian leader.

President Putin is also reportedly upset by Viktor Medvedchuk being charged with treason. The Ukrainian politician and businessman is a close ally of the Russian President. He is the chairman of the pro-Russia political organisation, Ukrainian Choice and was thought to be his biggest influence in Ukraine before being placed under house arrest.

Why has Russia invaded Ukraine?

President Putin claims the military operation was needed to protect civilians in eastern Ukraine who have been subject to genocide by Kyiv.

Before waging the war, Russia recognised the two self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas region as independent states.

President Vladimir Putin has also said Russia is seeking the ‘demilitarisation and de-Nazification of Ukraine’.

President Putin’s key demands ahead of the invasion were to block Ukraine from ever joining NATO and to offer Moscow security guarantees.

He sees NATO’s growth in Eastern Europe as a threat to Russia and its borders, specially the deployment of weapons systems in close vicinity.

Things escalated between the two countries when Russia seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine in 2014.

Probabilities on how war can end

Ukraine’s military and civilian resistance overcome the odds and grind Russia’s advance to a halt, preventing Putin from toppling Kyiv’s democratic government 

After weeks of intense fighting in Kyiv and other major cities, Russia manages to topple Ukraine’s democratically elected government and install a puppet regime. 

Ukraine eventually collapses under the weight of the Russian invasion. Despite intense opposition, Russian forces manage to take control of the country.

Ukraine conflict sets the stage for a direct military conflict between NATO and Russia. This could result in a full fledged war between Europe and Russia.