Russia invades Ukraine: The challenge before India

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch military strikes in Ukraine has escalated the ongoing confrontation between Russia and the West to another level. The action comes after months of suspense over Russia’s intentions and actions as its troops were massed at Ukraine’s borders with Russia as well as Belarus.

For months since US President Joe Biden and Russia’s President Putin launched a bilateral dialogue in Geneva in June last year, the two countries have been discussing measures to repair their relations and to make them stable and predictable. The dialogue has involved, besides the presidents, their foreign ministers, national security advisers, chiefs of the armed forces, heads of intelligence services and foreign ministry officials at senior levels. The factors covered have included a range of bilateral and multilateral issues that bedevilled their relationship, since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. But the important spotlight was on the European theatre, where the simmering tensions in eastern Ukraine and NATO’s strategic posture sustained the acrimony between Russia and the US-led NATO.

President Biden’s objective in seeking a stable, predictable relation with Russia was to disengage the US from its politically and financially costly engagements in conflicts and tensions in Europe and West Asia, so that it could concentrate its focus on its domestic challenges and its principal strategic adversary, China. Russia welcomed this outreach as an opportunity to reengage politically and economically with the US and Europe. It would enhance Russia’s global profile and promote much-needed technology and investment flow into the country.

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At the same time, President Putin stipulated that the engagement should be on equal terms. Russia wanted an amicable settlement of the Ukraine impasse, an assurance that NATO would not further expand into Ukraine and a mutual agreement to limit the number and range of advanced weapons systems deployed in NATO countries on Russia’s periphery, with reciprocal obligations on its side. While some diplomatic fudge could have resolved the second issue and there was a reasonable meeting ground on the third, the first proved to be impossible to resolve to the mutual satisfaction of Russia, Ukraine and other European stakeholders.

From indications available now, this is what led the Russian President to precipitate matters by launching direct military strikes in Ukraine. His stated purpose is to neutralise security threats to Russia from Ukrainian territory both from western-supplied military installations in that country and from right-wing, anti-Russian “neo-Nazis”. The Russian military action has drawn widespread condemnation.

India should tread carefully

India will have to consider its response and actions carefully. During the long-drawn-out episode of the massing of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, India took a balanced position in the UN Security Council and in its official statements essentially calling on all parties to follow the route of diplomacy and to accommodate the legitimate security concerns of all stakeholders in the interests of long-term peace and stability. While this may seem like mere platitudes, it did capture the essence of what all stakeholders were themselves saying.

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The US-led West was, even while criticising Russian intimidation by troop build-up, asking Russia to come to the negotiating table. Russia was also saying it wanted diplomacy, but that the West was not taking its security demands seriously. The fact that Russia had legitimate security concerns were acknowledged by the US and NATO, even if there were differences with Russia about their extent and nature. Moreover, as long as Russian troops were on Russian territory (and in Belarus on invitation), international law had not been breached.

The situation is now very different since military action has taken place. The pressure on India will be intense to unequivocally condemn Russia’s actions as a contravention of international law, which in fact it is.

This presents India with a challenge. But we have been there before, in 2014, when Russia practically annexed Crimea by arranging a referendum there in which people voted overwhelmingly for the peninsular region to accede to Russia. India has long held the position that the principle of self-determination cannot be applied to enable parts of countries to secede from it.

At the same time, while recognising that this act violated that principle, India also understood the strategic and security considerations that moved Russia to take that action. Recognising that this was a core concern of Russia, India did not publicly criticise this Russian action. However, our unease was expressed by the Prime Minister in a telephone conversation with President Putin, in which he drew attention to our position on self-determination while supporting diplomatic solutions in the legitimate interests of all countries.

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A similar approach would be recommended here. The India-Russia partnership is important for our defence cooperation and for our engagement with Iran, Central Asia and Afghanistan. We need to ensure that critical areas of cooperation are not impacted by unhelpful statements on Russia’s actions. This is a pragmatism that all countries bring to international relations.

The other challenges of war

The Russian action poses other challenges as well. Economically, the Western sanctions likely to be imposed against Russia may provoke counter-sanctions from Russia. Together, they may result in economic pain, in terms of oil and gas prices and the prices of commodities and raw materials, which are major Russian exports. Currency related sanctions may restrict dollar-denominated and euro-denominated trade.

On a broader strategic plane, the Russian actions strike at the root of the objective of the Biden-Putin summit that a modus vivendi with Russia could result in US-Russia cooperation on major global issues while enabling the US to focus its energies on dealing with China and its Indo-Pacific commitments. Unfortunately, the US may be bogged down for some time in Europe, dealing with the consequences of the Ukraine war. This may dilute its focus on the Indo-Pacific, which is not in India’s interest. A US-Russia confrontation also suits China, since it increases Russia’s dependence on its support and gives it greater freedom of action in its neighbourhood.

The Russia-West confrontation reminds us that the post-Cold War security order in Europe is still under construction. A stable order cannot be created without negotiations with Russia and accommodating its legitimate concerns. The sooner this happens, the better for European peace and security.

(The writer is a former Indian Ambassador to Russia and former chairman of the National Security Advisory Board)

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