Synopsis
India is under enormous pressure from both Washington and Moscow to vote with them on a UN Security Council resolution to censure Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Both sides have reached out to New Delhi to make their case and openly expressed hope that they will have India’s support for a vote that is expected in the early hours of Saturday IST.
(This story originally appeared in 
WASHINGTON: India is under enormous pressure from both Washington and Moscow to vote with them on a UN Security Council resolution to censure Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Both sides have reached out to New Delhi to make their case and openly expressed hope that they will have India’s support for a vote that is expected in the early hours of Saturday IST.
Barring a dramatic shift in India’s traditionalist and independent-minded geo-political thinking, it is expected to abstain or vote nay on the resolution, which in any case will be largely symbolic because Russia, as a permanent member of the UNSC will veto it.
A former Indian diplomat who has served in the UN said India’s vote will be a nay or an abstention depending on the language of the resolution, but he could not see it being a yes. US analysts already seem reconciled to India not supporting Washington.
“For those brand new to India and India-US relations, you’re destined to be disappointed by India’s approach to Russia. Disturbing loyalty to a rogue actor destabilizing the region. It’s nearly as bad as our relationship with Pakistan,” tweeted Jeff Smith, South Asia Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
US President Joe Biden left little doubt that Washington is pressing India to join in the outright western condemnation of Russia’s invasion. In response to a question at a White House press conference on Thursday whether US and India are on the same page, Biden said there will be “consultations” with India to “resolve” matters (“We haven’t resolved that fully,” he said) — a public disclosure that there is daylight between their views.
It was followed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken phoning his Indian counterpart S.Jaishankar to discuss what US officials described as “Russia’s premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified attack on Ukraine.” A state department readout of the call said Blinken stressed the importance of a strong collective response to condemn Russia’s invasion and called for an immediate withdrawal and ceasefire.
The US has noted that prime minister Narendra Modi appealed to President Putin for a “cessation of violence,” but he fell short of condemning Russia’s invasion while calling for “concerted efforts from all sides to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations and dialogue.” Washington maintains that Russia disdained calls for a dialogue and launched an unprovoked and unjustified attack when channels for talks were still available.
New Delhi’s critique about the situation in Ukraine having its roots in the post-Soviet politics and the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) appears to lay the blame for the conflict at Washington’s door. The fact that Russia has appreciated India’s “deep understanding” of the reasons that has led to the current situation has irked Washington, which sees the problem differently, emphasizing freedom of choice for Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.
India’s distrust of NATO, despite good ties with the US and European nations, is also rooted in Cold War alliances that Washington stitched together that New Delhi viewed with suspicion. Among them were Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) which was derived from the Middle East Treaty Organization (METO), also known as the Baghdad Pact, and which, till its dissolution in 1979, included Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey and the United Kingdom; and the Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty (SEATO), which till its dissolution in 1977 had Australia, France, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and the United Kingdom as members.
If India is in a jam over Ukraine, Pakistan is in a worse situation, having decided to cosy up to Moscow despite it long standing dependence on the west for monetary assistance and its military ties with Ukraine, which designed the Al Khalid battletank for the Pakistan army. The fact that Imran Khan went ahead with his Moscow visit even as Russian tanks were rolling towards Ukraine means Pakistan has either given up hopes of being in the US camp, piqued by the treatment it has received in recent years, or is playing its final card to work its way back into favor.
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